Mohammad Mahmood Faqe Hussein1, Samira Muhamad Salh1,
Akhterkhan Saber Hamad1
1College of Administration & Economics,
University of Sulaimani, KRG, Iraq
Email: [email protected], [email protected],
Email ID: [email protected]
DOI: 10.23918/ICABEP2023p40
Abstract:
Weather and climate have a great influence on all aspects of life; any changes in weather and climate pose a challenge to all sectors, especially in the field of future planning. Temperature is considered the most important climatic element that has a direct or indirect effect on other climatic elements. The goal of the study is to control the effect of yesterday’s daily temperature (x1) and the day before it (x2) on the current daily temperature ( current value equal to and the yesterday value = and the day before = )
Using a hybrid Markov-Logistic regression. The data on daily temperature were collected from the https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/daily.phtml?network=iq_asos# Network for about 4 years and 3 months on the daily temperature of Sulaymaniyah Governorate during the period January 2019 to March 2023. The first outcome illustrates that the daily temperature has a Markov chain with second order, and the logistic regression also expresses that a nice and sunny daily temperature followed by a nice and sunny daily temperature and a high daily temperature followed by a high daily temperature are more likely for the temperature of Sulaymaniyah. The second result shows that the model might achieve sufficient accuracy for many applications of temperature data reasonably, and the last result shows that yesterday’s daily temperature and one day before yesterday’s daily temperature have an impact on the daily temperature.
Keywords: Logistic regression, Markov chain, transition probability matrix, Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), temperatures
ICABEP2023
5th International Conference on Accounting, Business, Economics and Politics
Organized by
Tishk International University, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, and
University of Szczecin, Poland.
